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Pakistan Isn't Cambodia


I've seen occasional recent references  comparing  Pakistan to Cambodia during the Vietnam War.  If the Bush administration, or Barack Obama, thinks the two are comparable it is making the biggest miscalculation since the U.S.  made the mistake of getting too close to China in the Korean War.   Obama wants to expand the current Bush attacks on border areas to include an attack on Osama bin Laden where ever he might be in Pakistan.

U.N. forces had routed the North Korea Army and appeared to on the verge of winning when China became concerned that the Americans might decide to go ahead and conquer China as well because China had been supplying the North Koreans.  China responded by sending in its army.  President Harry Truman decided that it was best not to antagonize the Chinese any more than necessary and prohibited  bombing supply bases in China.

Enemies using sanctuaries  isn't a new situation for the U.S.  Andrew Jackson faced such a situation  along the border of what was then Spanish owned Florida during the administration of President James Monroe.  Jackson took care of the problem by in effect declaring war on Spain with nothing more than an ambiguous letter from President Monroe. Jackson invaded Florida without any authorization from Congress and captured the Spanish governor at a poorly defended fort at Pensacola.  Spain after a protest decided Florida wasn't worth the trouble and ceded it to the U.S.

 During the Vietnam War communist forces started using areas  of Cambodia along the Vietnam border as sanctuaries for supply depots and troop bases.  Cambodia with a population of only 7 million and no military force to speak of couldn't force the Vietnamese out and was afraid that acknowledging their presence would draw the country into the war.  North Vietnam denied having any forces in Cambodia. 

The U.S. occasionally bombed these forces and sent in commando type forces, but denied doing either.  The U.S. didn't want to formally enter the country because it didn't want to  risk forcing Cambodia to ask for assistance from someone like China or the U.S.S.R.  Cambodia also ignored the actions of  the U.S. claiming it wasn't aware of the presense of foreign troops or any bombing. 

In early 1970 Prince Norodom Sihanouk's efforts to keep the country out of the conflict failed and he was overthrown in a coup by pro-U.S. officials.   The new government  invited the U.S. in to eliminate the communist bases.  Subsequently the country endured a civil war that resulted in over a million deaths.

Pakistan with an estimated 2006 population of 165 million is the 6th most populous nation in the world with a population equal to the population of Iraq plus the population of  Russia.  It has the world's 7th largest military force, including nuclear weapons and missiles to deliver them.   Pakistan's population is approximately equal to the combined populations of World War II Germany and Japan. 

Militants are a potential threat to overthrow or even take over the government.  They would welcome an incident  they could use to attract support for  a  Jihad type war. 

Al Qaeda may be using Pakistan as a sanctuary as part of a  strategy to create an incident to draw Pakistan into their Jihad.  Osama bin Laden  might welcome  being killed if he could  achieve martyr status  and induce Pakistan to declare war or to start supplying his forces with conventional or nuclear weapons. 

Pakistan has already had a problem with a government scientist helping other countries develop nuclear weapons without government approval.  Other government officials might respond to a U.S. incident by allowing militants to "steal" nuclear weapons.  If those militants could also "steal" a missile that could be fired from  a ship, they might be able to destroy a U.S. city.

The United States have enough to handle without having to take on a major military power like Pakistan.  Al Qaeda sanctuaries in Pakistan do increase the hazards of those serving in Afghanistan just like the Cambodian sanctuaries increased the  threat to those of us who served in Vietnam.  The rockets and mortars fired in my direction may have been stockpiled in Cambodia before being provided for attacks.  The Viet Cong and North Vietnamese forces where I was took their R & R in Cambodia.

However, the potential threat of a  much wider war makes the risk of attacking sanctuaries, or attempting to attack Osama bin Laden as Barack Obama wants to do,  too great to take the chance.  Pakistan isn't a weak nation like Cambodia or early 19th Century Spain. Pakistan has a stronger military force than China had during the Korean War.  Little Iraq ignored an ultimatum. Why would any intelligent person think Pakistan would take orders from the U.S.?

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Is Obama Smarter than George W. Bush

Comedians regularly question the intelligence of President George W. Bush.  What many don't realize is that Bush  actually got better grades in college than either of the Democratic  candidates he ran against for president. 

Recent comments by Barack Obama indicate the Democrats are once again planning to nominate someone who is less intelligent than Bush. 

Obama is so ignorant he thinks Iran poses no threat to world peace because it is a "tiny nation".

Estimates of Iran's current population range from 65 to 70 million with 24 million males between the ages of 15 and 64 with the population concentrated at the younger end. With it's oil wealth, Iran could finance a very large army.   The total population is comparable to the populations of Germany and Japan when those nations began their attempts to conquer the world that produced World War II.

Japan temporarily conquered the more populous China as well as the South Pacific islands.  Germany temporarily conquered Europe from the French coast to well inside the much larger Soviet Union.  Adolph Hitler may not have established his 1,000 year Reich, but his actions resulted in millions of deaths and destruction of most of Europe, including England.

Iran wouldn't need to  attempt to build an empire to substantially  disrupt the world.  If Iran develops nuclear weapons it could start a nuclear war that would destroy the Middle East. 

Israel an even tinier nation, with a tenth of Iran's population,  already possesses  nuclear weapons.  Because of Israel's small size it would need to develop a first strike capability if Iran  acquired  nuclear weapons. 

It wouldn't take very many nukes to destroy Israel.  To avoid destruction, Israel would need to anticipate a potential Iranian attack and destroy Iran's missiles/planes before Iran could launch any attack.  And, if Israel  quessed wrong and Iran hadn't planned any attack...well they are only "tiny nations". 

Incidentally. I am working on a novel  dealing with  a nuclear war in the Middle East on  a parallel earth. 

Perhaps Obama is smarter than he appears.  Maybe he is just too immature to consider the long term consequences of actions.  In either case, his election could be a prelude to disaster.

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