Posted by
reasonmclucus on Wednesday, May 20, 2009 4:48:07 PM
Unless social conservatives were responsible for Sen. John McCain
getting the nomination instead of a Washington outsider like
Gov. Mike
Huckabee or
Gov. Mitt Romney, they were not responsible for the
GOP loss of the presidency.
McCain lost because he had the disadvantage of being a Senator and a
member of the incumbents party when the economy was going the
wrong way. It was natural for voters to think McCain would
continue Bush's economic policies.
An outsider might have been able to avoid being held responsible
for the economy, particularly running against an incumbent
Senator. A Republican governor could have run against both the
president and the Congress by blaming both for the economy.
Many political analysts ignore the fact that most voters base their
votes on issues other than social issues like abortion. Most
voters are more interested in issues such as economic policy,
foreign policy or crime.
Of the voters are consider abortion an important issue, most who
support abortion would likely vote for Democrats anyway. Many of
those who oppose abortion are more inclined to the Democratic positions
on economic issues, particularly with a bad economy. Many
conservative leaders were complaining before the election that
Barack Obama was attempting to convince social conservatives he
wouldn't make that many changes.
Without the social conservatives, John McCain would have lost by an
even bigger margin. If Republicans want to improve their chances
of winning they need to find more appealing positions on economic
issues.
A Democratic victory may have been inevitable considering that
since the Depression every president has been succeeded by his vice
president or someone from another party. And, only one vice
president, George H. W. Bush, succeeded through election instead of
through the death or resignation of the president. Bush's
victory might not be that significant considering that from 1840
through 1980 every president who won an election in a year ending in
zero was succeeded by his vice president.
In fact only three presidents who won an election in a year ending
in zero were not succeeded by their vice presidents. George
W. Bush is the first since James Monroe ( reelected in 1820) who wasn't
succeeded by his vice president. Thomas Jefferson was the
other president whose vice president didn't succeed him.