Posted by
reasonmclucus on Wednesday, October 29, 2008 4:32:21 PM
I've seen occasional recent references comparing Pakistan
to Cambodia during the Vietnam War. If the Bush administration,
or Barack
Obama, thinks the two are comparable it is making the biggest
miscalculation
since the U.S. made the mistake of getting too close to China in
the
Korean War.
Obama wants to expand the current Bush attacks on border areas to
include an attack on Osama bin Laden where ever he might be in
Pakistan.
U.N. forces had routed the North Korea Army and appeared to on the
verge of winning when China became concerned that the Americans might
decide to go ahead and conquer China as well because China had been
supplying the North Koreans. China responded by sending in its
army. President Harry Truman decided that it was best not to
antagonize the Chinese any more than necessary and prohibited
bombing supply bases in China.
Enemies using sanctuaries isn't a new situation for the
U.S. Andrew Jackson faced such a situation along the border
of what was then Spanish owned
Florida during
the administration of President James Monroe. Jackson took care
of the problem by in effect declaring war on Spain with nothing more
than an ambiguous letter from President Monroe. Jackson invaded Florida
without any authorization from Congress and captured the Spanish
governor at a poorly defended fort at Pensacola. Spain after a
protest decided Florida
wasn't worth the trouble and ceded it to the U.S.
During the Vietnam War communist forces started using areas
of
Cambodia along
the
Vietnam border as sanctuaries for supply depots and troop bases.
Cambodia with a
population of only 7 million and no military force to
speak of couldn't force the Vietnamese out and was afraid that
acknowledging their presence would draw the country into the war.
North Vietnam denied having any forces in Cambodia.
The U.S. occasionally bombed these forces and sent in commando type
forces, but denied doing either. The U.S. didn't want to formally
enter the country because it didn't want to risk forcing Cambodia
to ask for assistance from someone like China or the U.S.S.R.
Cambodia also ignored the actions of the U.S. claiming it wasn't
aware of the presense of foreign troops or any bombing.
In early 1970 Prince
Norodom Sihanouk's
efforts to keep the country out of the conflict failed and he was
overthrown in a coup by pro-U.S. officials. The new
government
invited the U.S. in to eliminate the communist bases.
Subsequently the
country endured a civil war that resulted in over a million
deaths.
Pakistan with an estimated
2006
population of 165 million is the 6th most populous nation in the
world with a population equal to the population of Iraq plus the
population of Russia. It has the world's
7th largest military force, including nuclear weapons and missiles to
deliver them. Pakistan's population is approximately equal
to the combined populations of World War II Germany and Japan.
Militants are a potential threat to overthrow or even take over the
government. They would welcome an incident they could use
to attract support for a Jihad type war.
Al Qaeda may be using Pakistan as a sanctuary as part of a
strategy to create an incident to draw Pakistan into their Jihad.
Osama bin Laden might welcome being killed if he
could achieve martyr status and induce Pakistan to
declare war or to start supplying his forces with conventional or
nuclear weapons.
Pakistan has already had a problem with a government scientist helping
other countries develop nuclear weapons without government
approval. Other government officials might respond to a U.S.
incident by allowing militants to "steal" nuclear weapons. If
those militants could also "steal" a missile that could be fired
from a ship, they might be able to destroy a U.S. city.
The United States have enough to handle without having to take on a
major military power like Pakistan. Al Qaeda sanctuaries in
Pakistan do increase the hazards of those serving in Afghanistan just
like the Cambodian sanctuaries increased the threat to those of
us who served in Vietnam. The rockets and mortars fired in my
direction may have been stockpiled in Cambodia before being provided
for attacks. The Viet Cong and North Vietnamese forces where I
was took their R & R in Cambodia.
However, the potential threat of a much wider war makes the risk
of attacking sanctuaries, or attempting to attack Osama bin Laden as
Barack Obama wants to do, too great to take the chance.
Pakistan isn't a weak nation like Cambodia or early 19th Century Spain.
Pakistan has a stronger military force than China had during the Korean
War. Little Iraq ignored an ultimatum. Why would any intelligent
person think Pakistan would take orders from the U.S.?